Research on the Spillover Effect and Configuration Path between China's Carbon Market and Electricity Market

Published: July 17, 2025
Views:       Downloads:
Abstract

In recent years, in the process of transformation of the electricity market, it has faced many risk factors such as technology, market and policy. At the same time, it has faced the risks brought about by policy adjustment and carbon price changes in carbon market trading. In order to accurately portray the risk spillover relationship between the carbon market and the electricity market, this paper constructs a TVP-VAR-DY model to explore the spillover time-varying relationship between the two markets, and uses fs QCA to analyze the configuration relationship of spillover influencing factors. The research results show that: (1) there is a significant time-variable overflow relationship between the carbon market and the electricity market. The early carbon market is the net transmitter, and the later carbon market is the net receiver of spillover; (2) There are no necessary conditions to cause a high overflow level between the carbon market and the electricity market, but there are three paths that can cause a high level of overflow between the carbon market and the electricity market. This research is of great significance to build a new power system, manage the risk of the carbon power market, and promote the coordinated development of the carbon power market.

Published in Abstract Book of ICEFMS2025 & MGMTENTR2025
Page(s) 8-8
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access abstract, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Risk Spillover Effect, TVP-VAR-DY, Configuration Path