Prediction of Co-Reduction Potential of Agricultural Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutants in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China

Published: July 17, 2025
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Abstract

Agricultural production contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions, playing a critical role in China's "dual carbon" strategy and rural development. This study systematically evaluated the co-reduction potential of agricultural sources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region using refined inventory methods and scenario analysis. Methods: Direct/indirect emissions of CO2, N2O, CH4, NOx, SO2, NH3, and PM from eight agricultural activities (e.g., fertilizer application, rice cultivation, livestock, farm machinery) were quantified for 2020. Emission trends under baseline and integrated control scenarios (2021-2035) were projected, with synergistic effects analyzed via reduction metrics. Results: In 2020, total agricultural GHG emissions reached 48.35 million tons (Hebei: 91.5%), dominated by crop production (37%) and livestock enteric fermentation (33%). Pollutant emissions included 268 kt NOx, 594 kt NH3, and 37 kt PM, primarily from machinery fuel (46% NOx), fertilizer loss (53% NH3), and straw burning (34% PM). Under the baseline scenario, GHG emissions are projected to rise 14.7% by 2035 (Hebei: +16.2%), while pollutants increase 94-169%. The integrated control scenario achieves 17.9% GHG reduction by 2035, with Hebei showing the highest mitigation potential. Key measures include nitrification inhibitor fertilizers (22% NH3 reduction), biogas power generation (18% CH4), and photovoltaic agriculture (15% CO2). Pollutant reductions under coordinated strategies reach 21.3% (NOx), 26.5% (NH3), and 17.5% (PM), driven by machinery upgrades, water-fertilizer integration, and no-till practices. Conclusion: Synergistic measures like organic fertilization, deep tillage, and energy optimization demonstrate the highest co-benefits. The study provides a scientific basis for precision emission reduction strategies in the region.

Published in Abstract Book of ICEEES2025 & ICCEE2025
Page(s) 8-8
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access abstract, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Agricultural Sources, Greenhouse Gases, Air Pollutants, Co-Reduction Potential, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei