Mathematical Modelling of the Effects Funding on HIV Dynamics Among Truckers and Female Sex Workers Along the Kenyan Northern Corridor Highway

Ancent Makau Kimulu; Winifred Nduku Mutuku; Samuel Musili Mwalili; David Malonza; Abayomi Samuel Oke

doi:doi:10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14

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Mathematical Modelling of the Effects Funding on HIV Dynamics Among Truckers and Female Sex Workers Along the Kenyan Northern Corridor Highway

Ancent Makau Kimulu, Winifred Nduku Mutuku, Samuel Musili Mwalili, David Malonza, Abayomi Samuel Oke

Published in Advances in Applied Sciences (Volume 7, Issue 3)

Received: 20 July 2022 Accepted: 4 August 2022 Published: 12 August 2022

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Abstract

The Southern and Eastern parts of Africa are the most hit by HIV/AIDS in the world and a huge financial commitment is required to control the spread of the disease. Of these countries, Kenya and South Africa have been able to increase prevention and treatment services due to their financial commitment to fighting the epidemic. However, studies have shown that most of the financial commitment comes from private donors and the private sectors are recently becoming reluctant to release funds. It is therefore important to ensure that the available funding is effectively utilised. Studies in 2018 show that infections occurred mostly among the key populations on the Kenyan Northern Corridor highway; such as sex workers and truckers. Moreso, transactional sex which involves cash transfer is the main mode of transmission of HIV/AIDS along the Northern corridor highway in Kenya. In this paper, we study the effect of funding on HIV transmission between truckers and female sex workers. A mathematical model with funding parameters is developed and analysed to determine the effects of funding on the HIV transmission dynamics between truckers and female sex workers. The reproduction number is obtained using the next-generation matrix and the conditions for the stability of the equilibrium points are established. The model is fed into the MATLAB ode45 solver and a numerical simulation is carried out. The results show that increasing circumcision funding reduces the rate of migration from the Susceptible class to the Infected class. Also, increasing treatment funding increases the Treatment class and reduces the overall number of AIDS-related.

Published in	Advances in Applied Sciences (Volume 7, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14
Page(s)	52-64
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

HIV/AIDS, Funding, Transmission Dynamics, Truckers, Female Sex Workers

References

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[10]	A. G. Ferguson, & C. N. Morris, (2007). Mapping transactional sex on the Northern Corridor highway in Kenya. Health & place, 13 (2): 504-519.
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[19]	Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2012). Progress in voluntary medical male circumcision service provision - Kenya, 2008-2011. MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report, 61 (47), 957–961.
[20]	Michael Elmore-Meegan (Director), Ronán M Conroy (Lecturer in Biostatistics) & C. Bernard Agala (Research Assistant) (2004) Sex Workers in Kenya, Numbers of Clients and Associated Risks: An Exploratory Survey, Reproductive Health Matters, 12 (23): 50-57. DOI: 10.1016/S0968-8080(04)23125-1.
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[23]	Ministry of Health (2020). Kenya’s National HIV Survey Shows Progress Towards Control of the Epidemic. Nairobi, 20th February 2020 [Accessed on December 22, 2021]. www.health.go.ke/kenyas-national-hiv-survey-shows-progress-towards-control-of-the-epidemic-nairobi-20th-february-2020/
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[25]	Kimulu, A. M., Mutuku, W. N., Mwalili, S. M., Malonza, D., & Oke, A. S. (2022). Male Circumcision: A Means to Reduce HIV Transmission between Truckers and Female Sex Workers in Kenya. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Modeling, 3 (1), 50–59. https://doi.org/10.48185/jmam.v3i1.424

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APA Style

Ancent Makau Kimulu, Winifred Nduku Mutuku, Samuel Musili Mwalili, David Malonza, Abayomi Samuel Oke. (2022). Mathematical Modelling of the Effects Funding on HIV Dynamics Among Truckers and Female Sex Workers Along the Kenyan Northern Corridor Highway. Advances in Applied Sciences, 7(3), 52-64. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14

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ACS Style

Ancent Makau Kimulu; Winifred Nduku Mutuku; Samuel Musili Mwalili; David Malonza; Abayomi Samuel Oke. Mathematical Modelling of the Effects Funding on HIV Dynamics Among Truckers and Female Sex Workers Along the Kenyan Northern Corridor Highway. Adv. Appl. Sci. 2022, 7(3), 52-64. doi: 10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14

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AMA Style

Ancent Makau Kimulu, Winifred Nduku Mutuku, Samuel Musili Mwalili, David Malonza, Abayomi Samuel Oke. Mathematical Modelling of the Effects Funding on HIV Dynamics Among Truckers and Female Sex Workers Along the Kenyan Northern Corridor Highway. Adv Appl Sci. 2022;7(3):52-64. doi: 10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14

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@article{10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14,
  author = {Ancent Makau Kimulu and Winifred Nduku Mutuku and Samuel Musili Mwalili and David Malonza and Abayomi Samuel Oke},
  title = {Mathematical Modelling of the Effects Funding on HIV Dynamics Among Truckers and Female Sex Workers Along the Kenyan Northern Corridor Highway},
  journal = {Advances in Applied Sciences},
  volume = {7},
  number = {3},
  pages = {52-64},
  doi = {10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.aas.20220703.14},
  abstract = {The Southern and Eastern parts of Africa are the most hit by HIV/AIDS in the world and a huge financial commitment is required to control the spread of the disease. Of these countries, Kenya and South Africa have been able to increase prevention and treatment services due to their financial commitment to fighting the epidemic. However, studies have shown that most of the financial commitment comes from private donors and the private sectors are recently becoming reluctant to release funds. It is therefore important to ensure that the available funding is effectively utilised. Studies in 2018 show that infections occurred mostly among the key populations on the Kenyan Northern Corridor highway; such as sex workers and truckers. Moreso, transactional sex which involves cash transfer is the main mode of transmission of HIV/AIDS along the Northern corridor highway in Kenya. In this paper, we study the effect of funding on HIV transmission between truckers and female sex workers. A mathematical model with funding parameters is developed and analysed to determine the effects of funding on the HIV transmission dynamics between truckers and female sex workers. The reproduction number is obtained using the next-generation matrix and the conditions for the stability of the equilibrium points are established. The model is fed into the MATLAB ode45 solver and a numerical simulation is carried out. The results show that increasing circumcision funding reduces the rate of migration from the Susceptible class to the Infected class. Also, increasing treatment funding increases the Treatment class and reduces the overall number of AIDS-related.},
 year = {2022}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Mathematical Modelling of the Effects Funding on HIV Dynamics Among Truckers and Female Sex Workers Along the Kenyan Northern Corridor Highway
AU  - Ancent Makau Kimulu
AU  - Winifred Nduku Mutuku
AU  - Samuel Musili Mwalili
AU  - David Malonza
AU  - Abayomi Samuel Oke
Y1  - 2022/08/12
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14
DO  - 10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14
T2  - Advances in Applied Sciences
JF  - Advances in Applied Sciences
JO  - Advances in Applied Sciences
SP  - 52
EP  - 64
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-1514
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14
AB  - The Southern and Eastern parts of Africa are the most hit by HIV/AIDS in the world and a huge financial commitment is required to control the spread of the disease. Of these countries, Kenya and South Africa have been able to increase prevention and treatment services due to their financial commitment to fighting the epidemic. However, studies have shown that most of the financial commitment comes from private donors and the private sectors are recently becoming reluctant to release funds. It is therefore important to ensure that the available funding is effectively utilised. Studies in 2018 show that infections occurred mostly among the key populations on the Kenyan Northern Corridor highway; such as sex workers and truckers. Moreso, transactional sex which involves cash transfer is the main mode of transmission of HIV/AIDS along the Northern corridor highway in Kenya. In this paper, we study the effect of funding on HIV transmission between truckers and female sex workers. A mathematical model with funding parameters is developed and analysed to determine the effects of funding on the HIV transmission dynamics between truckers and female sex workers. The reproduction number is obtained using the next-generation matrix and the conditions for the stability of the equilibrium points are established. The model is fed into the MATLAB ode45 solver and a numerical simulation is carried out. The results show that increasing circumcision funding reduces the rate of migration from the Susceptible class to the Infected class. Also, increasing treatment funding increases the Treatment class and reduces the overall number of AIDS-related.
VL  - 7
IS  - 3
ER  -

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Author Information

Ancent Makau Kimulu

Department of Mathematics and Actuarial Science, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya
Winifred Nduku Mutuku

Department of Mathematics and Actuarial Science, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya
Samuel Musili Mwalili

Department of Mathematics, Jomo Kenyatta University of Science and Technology, Juja, Kenya
David Malonza

Department of Mathematics and Actuarial Science, South Eastern Kenya University, Kitui, Kenya
Abayomi Samuel Oke

Department of Mathematical Sciences, Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba Akoko, Nigeria

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Ancent Makau Kimulu, Winifred Nduku Mutuku, Samuel Musili Mwalili, David Malonza, Abayomi Samuel Oke. (2022). Mathematical Modelling of the Effects Funding on HIV Dynamics Among Truckers and Female Sex Workers Along the Kenyan Northern Corridor Highway. Advances in Applied Sciences, 7(3), 52-64. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14

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ACS Style

Ancent Makau Kimulu; Winifred Nduku Mutuku; Samuel Musili Mwalili; David Malonza; Abayomi Samuel Oke. Mathematical Modelling of the Effects Funding on HIV Dynamics Among Truckers and Female Sex Workers Along the Kenyan Northern Corridor Highway. Adv. Appl. Sci. 2022, 7(3), 52-64. doi: 10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14

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AMA Style

Ancent Makau Kimulu, Winifred Nduku Mutuku, Samuel Musili Mwalili, David Malonza, Abayomi Samuel Oke. Mathematical Modelling of the Effects Funding on HIV Dynamics Among Truckers and Female Sex Workers Along the Kenyan Northern Corridor Highway. Adv Appl Sci. 2022;7(3):52-64. doi: 10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14

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@article{10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14,
  author = {Ancent Makau Kimulu and Winifred Nduku Mutuku and Samuel Musili Mwalili and David Malonza and Abayomi Samuel Oke},
  title = {Mathematical Modelling of the Effects Funding on HIV Dynamics Among Truckers and Female Sex Workers Along the Kenyan Northern Corridor Highway},
  journal = {Advances in Applied Sciences},
  volume = {7},
  number = {3},
  pages = {52-64},
  doi = {10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.aas.20220703.14},
  abstract = {The Southern and Eastern parts of Africa are the most hit by HIV/AIDS in the world and a huge financial commitment is required to control the spread of the disease. Of these countries, Kenya and South Africa have been able to increase prevention and treatment services due to their financial commitment to fighting the epidemic. However, studies have shown that most of the financial commitment comes from private donors and the private sectors are recently becoming reluctant to release funds. It is therefore important to ensure that the available funding is effectively utilised. Studies in 2018 show that infections occurred mostly among the key populations on the Kenyan Northern Corridor highway; such as sex workers and truckers. Moreso, transactional sex which involves cash transfer is the main mode of transmission of HIV/AIDS along the Northern corridor highway in Kenya. In this paper, we study the effect of funding on HIV transmission between truckers and female sex workers. A mathematical model with funding parameters is developed and analysed to determine the effects of funding on the HIV transmission dynamics between truckers and female sex workers. The reproduction number is obtained using the next-generation matrix and the conditions for the stability of the equilibrium points are established. The model is fed into the MATLAB ode45 solver and a numerical simulation is carried out. The results show that increasing circumcision funding reduces the rate of migration from the Susceptible class to the Infected class. Also, increasing treatment funding increases the Treatment class and reduces the overall number of AIDS-related.},
 year = {2022}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Mathematical Modelling of the Effects Funding on HIV Dynamics Among Truckers and Female Sex Workers Along the Kenyan Northern Corridor Highway
AU  - Ancent Makau Kimulu
AU  - Winifred Nduku Mutuku
AU  - Samuel Musili Mwalili
AU  - David Malonza
AU  - Abayomi Samuel Oke
Y1  - 2022/08/12
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14
DO  - 10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14
T2  - Advances in Applied Sciences
JF  - Advances in Applied Sciences
JO  - Advances in Applied Sciences
SP  - 52
EP  - 64
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-1514
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.aas.20220703.14
AB  - The Southern and Eastern parts of Africa are the most hit by HIV/AIDS in the world and a huge financial commitment is required to control the spread of the disease. Of these countries, Kenya and South Africa have been able to increase prevention and treatment services due to their financial commitment to fighting the epidemic. However, studies have shown that most of the financial commitment comes from private donors and the private sectors are recently becoming reluctant to release funds. It is therefore important to ensure that the available funding is effectively utilised. Studies in 2018 show that infections occurred mostly among the key populations on the Kenyan Northern Corridor highway; such as sex workers and truckers. Moreso, transactional sex which involves cash transfer is the main mode of transmission of HIV/AIDS along the Northern corridor highway in Kenya. In this paper, we study the effect of funding on HIV transmission between truckers and female sex workers. A mathematical model with funding parameters is developed and analysed to determine the effects of funding on the HIV transmission dynamics between truckers and female sex workers. The reproduction number is obtained using the next-generation matrix and the conditions for the stability of the equilibrium points are established. The model is fed into the MATLAB ode45 solver and a numerical simulation is carried out. The results show that increasing circumcision funding reduces the rate of migration from the Susceptible class to the Infected class. Also, increasing treatment funding increases the Treatment class and reduces the overall number of AIDS-related.
VL  - 7
IS  - 3
ER  -

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