Hybrid Warfare and Financial Market Volatility: The Case of the Recent Ukrainian Crisis of 2021

Kéba Aly Goudiaby; Amon Aniké Deh

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20

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Hybrid Warfare and Financial Market Volatility: The Case of the Recent Ukrainian Crisis of 2021

Kéba Aly Goudiaby, Amon Aniké Deh

Published in International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences (Volume 11, Issue 3)

Received: 10 May 2023 Accepted: 7 June 2023 Published: 20 June 2023

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Abstract

The purpose of this article is to study the impact of a hybrid war on the volatility of financial markets. The data on the returns of Ukrainian, Russian, German, American, English and French stock indices are taken from the Boursorama database during the tension period from November 10, 2021 to February 23, 2022. The results of our study with the ARCH / GARCH models show that military escalation conveyed by aggressive speeches, arms transfers, troop massification, fake news, military exercises, threats of sanctions, suspicions of invasion as well as de-escalation conveyed by talks, soothing speeches, cessation of military exercises and withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian border significantly impact the volatility of the stock market indexes studied. This work could be useful to understand the anticipation and the reaction of rational and irrational investors on the markets in case of a hybrid war situation but also the contagion that this could generate on the other financial markets through the channels of financial contagion in this context of hybrid war that are the dependence on certain commodities (gas, wheat, oil) and also a psychological contagion due to the extreme fear and the emotion of investors on the markets.

Published in	International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences (Volume 11, Issue 3)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20
Page(s)	160-167
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Hybrid War, Volatility, Stock Indices, Financial Markets, Ukrainian Crisis

References

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APA Style

Kéba Aly Goudiaby, Amon Aniké Deh. (2023). Hybrid Warfare and Financial Market Volatility: The Case of the Recent Ukrainian Crisis of 2021. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 11(3), 160-167. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20

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ACS Style

Kéba Aly Goudiaby; Amon Aniké Deh. Hybrid Warfare and Financial Market Volatility: The Case of the Recent Ukrainian Crisis of 2021. Int. J. Econ. Finance Manag. Sci. 2023, 11(3), 160-167. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20

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AMA Style

Kéba Aly Goudiaby, Amon Aniké Deh. Hybrid Warfare and Financial Market Volatility: The Case of the Recent Ukrainian Crisis of 2021. Int J Econ Finance Manag Sci. 2023;11(3):160-167. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20

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@article{10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20,
  author = {Kéba Aly Goudiaby and Amon Aniké Deh},
  title = {Hybrid Warfare and Financial Market Volatility: The Case of the Recent Ukrainian Crisis of 2021},
  journal = {International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences},
  volume = {11},
  number = {3},
  pages = {160-167},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijefm.20231103.20},
  abstract = {The purpose of this article is to study the impact of a hybrid war on the volatility of financial markets. The data on the returns of Ukrainian, Russian, German, American, English and French stock indices are taken from the Boursorama database during the tension period from November 10, 2021 to February 23, 2022. The results of our study with the ARCH / GARCH models show that military escalation conveyed by aggressive speeches, arms transfers, troop massification, fake news, military exercises, threats of sanctions, suspicions of invasion as well as de-escalation conveyed by talks, soothing speeches, cessation of military exercises and withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian border significantly impact the volatility of the stock market indexes studied. This work could be useful to understand the anticipation and the reaction of rational and irrational investors on the markets in case of a hybrid war situation but also the contagion that this could generate on the other financial markets through the channels of financial contagion in this context of hybrid war that are the dependence on certain commodities (gas, wheat, oil) and also a psychological contagion due to the extreme fear and the emotion of investors on the markets.},
 year = {2023}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Hybrid Warfare and Financial Market Volatility: The Case of the Recent Ukrainian Crisis of 2021
AU  - Kéba Aly Goudiaby
AU  - Amon Aniké Deh
Y1  - 2023/06/20
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20
T2  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
JF  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
JO  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
SP  - 160
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PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9561
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AB  - The purpose of this article is to study the impact of a hybrid war on the volatility of financial markets. The data on the returns of Ukrainian, Russian, German, American, English and French stock indices are taken from the Boursorama database during the tension period from November 10, 2021 to February 23, 2022. The results of our study with the ARCH / GARCH models show that military escalation conveyed by aggressive speeches, arms transfers, troop massification, fake news, military exercises, threats of sanctions, suspicions of invasion as well as de-escalation conveyed by talks, soothing speeches, cessation of military exercises and withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian border significantly impact the volatility of the stock market indexes studied. This work could be useful to understand the anticipation and the reaction of rational and irrational investors on the markets in case of a hybrid war situation but also the contagion that this could generate on the other financial markets through the channels of financial contagion in this context of hybrid war that are the dependence on certain commodities (gas, wheat, oil) and also a psychological contagion due to the extreme fear and the emotion of investors on the markets.
VL  - 11
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Author Information

Kéba Aly Goudiaby

Department of Economics and Management, Assane Seck University, Ziguinchor, Senegal
Amon Aniké Deh

Department of Economics and Management, Assane Seck University, Ziguinchor, Senegal

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APA Style

Kéba Aly Goudiaby, Amon Aniké Deh. (2023). Hybrid Warfare and Financial Market Volatility: The Case of the Recent Ukrainian Crisis of 2021. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 11(3), 160-167. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20

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ACS Style

Kéba Aly Goudiaby; Amon Aniké Deh. Hybrid Warfare and Financial Market Volatility: The Case of the Recent Ukrainian Crisis of 2021. Int. J. Econ. Finance Manag. Sci. 2023, 11(3), 160-167. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20

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AMA Style

Kéba Aly Goudiaby, Amon Aniké Deh. Hybrid Warfare and Financial Market Volatility: The Case of the Recent Ukrainian Crisis of 2021. Int J Econ Finance Manag Sci. 2023;11(3):160-167. doi: 10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20,
  author = {Kéba Aly Goudiaby and Amon Aniké Deh},
  title = {Hybrid Warfare and Financial Market Volatility: The Case of the Recent Ukrainian Crisis of 2021},
  journal = {International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences},
  volume = {11},
  number = {3},
  pages = {160-167},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijefm.20231103.20},
  abstract = {The purpose of this article is to study the impact of a hybrid war on the volatility of financial markets. The data on the returns of Ukrainian, Russian, German, American, English and French stock indices are taken from the Boursorama database during the tension period from November 10, 2021 to February 23, 2022. The results of our study with the ARCH / GARCH models show that military escalation conveyed by aggressive speeches, arms transfers, troop massification, fake news, military exercises, threats of sanctions, suspicions of invasion as well as de-escalation conveyed by talks, soothing speeches, cessation of military exercises and withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian border significantly impact the volatility of the stock market indexes studied. This work could be useful to understand the anticipation and the reaction of rational and irrational investors on the markets in case of a hybrid war situation but also the contagion that this could generate on the other financial markets through the channels of financial contagion in this context of hybrid war that are the dependence on certain commodities (gas, wheat, oil) and also a psychological contagion due to the extreme fear and the emotion of investors on the markets.},
 year = {2023}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Hybrid Warfare and Financial Market Volatility: The Case of the Recent Ukrainian Crisis of 2021
AU  - Kéba Aly Goudiaby
AU  - Amon Aniké Deh
Y1  - 2023/06/20
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20
T2  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
JF  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
JO  - International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences
SP  - 160
EP  - 167
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2326-9561
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijefm.20231103.20
AB  - The purpose of this article is to study the impact of a hybrid war on the volatility of financial markets. The data on the returns of Ukrainian, Russian, German, American, English and French stock indices are taken from the Boursorama database during the tension period from November 10, 2021 to February 23, 2022. The results of our study with the ARCH / GARCH models show that military escalation conveyed by aggressive speeches, arms transfers, troop massification, fake news, military exercises, threats of sanctions, suspicions of invasion as well as de-escalation conveyed by talks, soothing speeches, cessation of military exercises and withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian border significantly impact the volatility of the stock market indexes studied. This work could be useful to understand the anticipation and the reaction of rational and irrational investors on the markets in case of a hybrid war situation but also the contagion that this could generate on the other financial markets through the channels of financial contagion in this context of hybrid war that are the dependence on certain commodities (gas, wheat, oil) and also a psychological contagion due to the extreme fear and the emotion of investors on the markets.
VL  - 11
IS  - 3
ER  -

Copy | Download