Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach

Aaron Lucas; Michele Wilson; Heather L. Sings; Sarah Pugh; Dylan Jones; Raymond Farkouh; Bradford Gessner; Matthew Wasserman

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12

Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach

Aaron Lucas, Michele Wilson, Heather L. Sings, Sarah Pugh, Dylan Jones, Raymond Farkouh, Bradford Gessner, Matthew Wasserman

Published in International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy (Volume 4, Issue 4)

Received: 17 October 2019 Accepted: 14 November 2019 Published: 6 December 2019

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Abstract

Background: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is the only PCV licensed to protect against serotype 3 in children. However, conflicting estimates exist of PCV13’s direct and indirect protection vaccine effectiveness (VE) for serotype 3. Objective: Our study examined the of PCV13 for serotype 3 using different assumptions for PCV13 direct and indirect VE to model trends in serotype 3 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and comparing these to observed data from the United Kingdom (UK). Methods: A dynamic transmission model of the spread of pneumococcal carriage and development of IPD was used to fit pre-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence with observed data. To allow for comparison across scenarios, post-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence was fit to observed data using assumptions for three different scenarios: (scenario 1) serotype 3 as a nonvaccine serotype, (scenario 2) VE against serotype 3 IPD of 63.5% based on a recent meta-analysis, and (scenario 3) a model-estimated VE against serotype 3. Results: Post-PCV13 introduction, modeled 2017 and average annual serotype 3 IPD incidence were within 20% and 59% of observed values for scenarios 2 and 3, respectively, but deviated by >100% for scenario 1. For adults aged ≥65 years, modeled 2017 IPD incidence in scenario 1 differed from observed data by 16% versus roughly 8% in scenarios 2 and 3. Conclusions: Observed data do not support a scenario of no serotype 3 VE, but rather a combination of direct protection among vaccinated children and a lower level of indirect protection among older adults. Policymakers should consider transmission dynamics when examining VE against covered serotypes.

Published in	International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy (Volume 4, Issue 4)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12
Page(s)	56-66
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2019. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Pneumococcal Pneumonia, Vaccine, Dynamic Transmission Model, Invasive Pneumococcal Disease

References

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APA Style

Aaron Lucas, Michele Wilson, Heather L. Sings, Sarah Pugh, Dylan Jones, et al. (2019). Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach. International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy, 4(4), 56-66. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12

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ACS Style

Aaron Lucas; Michele Wilson; Heather L. Sings; Sarah Pugh; Dylan Jones, et al. Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach. Int. J. Infect. Dis. Ther. 2019, 4(4), 56-66. doi: 10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12

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AMA Style

Aaron Lucas, Michele Wilson, Heather L. Sings, Sarah Pugh, Dylan Jones, et al. Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach. Int J Infect Dis Ther. 2019;4(4):56-66. doi: 10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12,
  author = {Aaron Lucas and Michele Wilson and Heather L. Sings and Sarah Pugh and Dylan Jones and Raymond Farkouh and Bradford Gessner and Matthew Wasserman},
  title = {Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach},
  journal = {International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy},
  volume = {4},
  number = {4},
  pages = {56-66},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijidt.20190404.12},
  abstract = {Background: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is the only PCV licensed to protect against serotype 3 in children. However, conflicting estimates exist of PCV13’s direct and indirect protection vaccine effectiveness (VE) for serotype 3. Objective: Our study examined the of PCV13 for serotype 3 using different assumptions for PCV13 direct and indirect VE to model trends in serotype 3 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and comparing these to observed data from the United Kingdom (UK). Methods: A dynamic transmission model of the spread of pneumococcal carriage and development of IPD was used to fit pre-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence with observed data. To allow for comparison across scenarios, post-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence was fit to observed data using assumptions for three different scenarios: (scenario 1) serotype 3 as a nonvaccine serotype, (scenario 2) VE against serotype 3 IPD of 63.5% based on a recent meta-analysis, and (scenario 3) a model-estimated VE against serotype 3. Results: Post-PCV13 introduction, modeled 2017 and average annual serotype 3 IPD incidence were within 20% and 59% of observed values for scenarios 2 and 3, respectively, but deviated by >100% for scenario 1. For adults aged ≥65 years, modeled 2017 IPD incidence in scenario 1 differed from observed data by 16% versus roughly 8% in scenarios 2 and 3. Conclusions: Observed data do not support a scenario of no serotype 3 VE, but rather a combination of direct protection among vaccinated children and a lower level of indirect protection among older adults. Policymakers should consider transmission dynamics when examining VE against covered serotypes.},
 year = {2019}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach
AU  - Aaron Lucas
AU  - Michele Wilson
AU  - Heather L. Sings
AU  - Sarah Pugh
AU  - Dylan Jones
AU  - Raymond Farkouh
AU  - Bradford Gessner
AU  - Matthew Wasserman
Y1  - 2019/12/06
PY  - 2019
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12
T2  - International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy
JF  - International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy
JO  - International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy
SP  - 56
EP  - 66
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-966X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12
AB  - Background: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is the only PCV licensed to protect against serotype 3 in children. However, conflicting estimates exist of PCV13’s direct and indirect protection vaccine effectiveness (VE) for serotype 3. Objective: Our study examined the of PCV13 for serotype 3 using different assumptions for PCV13 direct and indirect VE to model trends in serotype 3 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and comparing these to observed data from the United Kingdom (UK). Methods: A dynamic transmission model of the spread of pneumococcal carriage and development of IPD was used to fit pre-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence with observed data. To allow for comparison across scenarios, post-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence was fit to observed data using assumptions for three different scenarios: (scenario 1) serotype 3 as a nonvaccine serotype, (scenario 2) VE against serotype 3 IPD of 63.5% based on a recent meta-analysis, and (scenario 3) a model-estimated VE against serotype 3. Results: Post-PCV13 introduction, modeled 2017 and average annual serotype 3 IPD incidence were within 20% and 59% of observed values for scenarios 2 and 3, respectively, but deviated by >100% for scenario 1. For adults aged ≥65 years, modeled 2017 IPD incidence in scenario 1 differed from observed data by 16% versus roughly 8% in scenarios 2 and 3. Conclusions: Observed data do not support a scenario of no serotype 3 VE, but rather a combination of direct protection among vaccinated children and a lower level of indirect protection among older adults. Policymakers should consider transmission dynamics when examining VE against covered serotypes.
VL  - 4
IS  - 4
ER  -

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Author Information

Aaron Lucas

RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, United States
Michele Wilson

RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, United States
Heather L. Sings

Pfizer Inc., Collegeville, United States
Sarah Pugh

Pfizer Inc., Collegeville, United States
Dylan Jones

Pfizer Ltd. Walton Oaks, United Kingdom
Raymond Farkouh

Pfizer Inc., Collegeville, United States
Bradford Gessner

Pfizer Inc., Collegeville, United States
Matthew Wasserman

Pfizer Inc., New York, United States

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APA Style

Aaron Lucas, Michele Wilson, Heather L. Sings, Sarah Pugh, Dylan Jones, et al. (2019). Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach. International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy, 4(4), 56-66. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12

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ACS Style

Aaron Lucas; Michele Wilson; Heather L. Sings; Sarah Pugh; Dylan Jones, et al. Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach. Int. J. Infect. Dis. Ther. 2019, 4(4), 56-66. doi: 10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12

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AMA Style

Aaron Lucas, Michele Wilson, Heather L. Sings, Sarah Pugh, Dylan Jones, et al. Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach. Int J Infect Dis Ther. 2019;4(4):56-66. doi: 10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12

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@article{10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12,
  author = {Aaron Lucas and Michele Wilson and Heather L. Sings and Sarah Pugh and Dylan Jones and Raymond Farkouh and Bradford Gessner and Matthew Wasserman},
  title = {Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach},
  journal = {International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy},
  volume = {4},
  number = {4},
  pages = {56-66},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijidt.20190404.12},
  abstract = {Background: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is the only PCV licensed to protect against serotype 3 in children. However, conflicting estimates exist of PCV13’s direct and indirect protection vaccine effectiveness (VE) for serotype 3. Objective: Our study examined the of PCV13 for serotype 3 using different assumptions for PCV13 direct and indirect VE to model trends in serotype 3 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and comparing these to observed data from the United Kingdom (UK). Methods: A dynamic transmission model of the spread of pneumococcal carriage and development of IPD was used to fit pre-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence with observed data. To allow for comparison across scenarios, post-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence was fit to observed data using assumptions for three different scenarios: (scenario 1) serotype 3 as a nonvaccine serotype, (scenario 2) VE against serotype 3 IPD of 63.5% based on a recent meta-analysis, and (scenario 3) a model-estimated VE against serotype 3. Results: Post-PCV13 introduction, modeled 2017 and average annual serotype 3 IPD incidence were within 20% and 59% of observed values for scenarios 2 and 3, respectively, but deviated by >100% for scenario 1. For adults aged ≥65 years, modeled 2017 IPD incidence in scenario 1 differed from observed data by 16% versus roughly 8% in scenarios 2 and 3. Conclusions: Observed data do not support a scenario of no serotype 3 VE, but rather a combination of direct protection among vaccinated children and a lower level of indirect protection among older adults. Policymakers should consider transmission dynamics when examining VE against covered serotypes.},
 year = {2019}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Estimating the Vaccine Effectiveness Against Serotype 3 for the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine: A Dynamic Modeling Approach
AU  - Aaron Lucas
AU  - Michele Wilson
AU  - Heather L. Sings
AU  - Sarah Pugh
AU  - Dylan Jones
AU  - Raymond Farkouh
AU  - Bradford Gessner
AU  - Matthew Wasserman
Y1  - 2019/12/06
PY  - 2019
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12
T2  - International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy
JF  - International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy
JO  - International Journal of Infectious Diseases and Therapy
SP  - 56
EP  - 66
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2578-966X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijidt.20190404.12
AB  - Background: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is the only PCV licensed to protect against serotype 3 in children. However, conflicting estimates exist of PCV13’s direct and indirect protection vaccine effectiveness (VE) for serotype 3. Objective: Our study examined the of PCV13 for serotype 3 using different assumptions for PCV13 direct and indirect VE to model trends in serotype 3 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and comparing these to observed data from the United Kingdom (UK). Methods: A dynamic transmission model of the spread of pneumococcal carriage and development of IPD was used to fit pre-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence with observed data. To allow for comparison across scenarios, post-PCV13–modeled IPD incidence was fit to observed data using assumptions for three different scenarios: (scenario 1) serotype 3 as a nonvaccine serotype, (scenario 2) VE against serotype 3 IPD of 63.5% based on a recent meta-analysis, and (scenario 3) a model-estimated VE against serotype 3. Results: Post-PCV13 introduction, modeled 2017 and average annual serotype 3 IPD incidence were within 20% and 59% of observed values for scenarios 2 and 3, respectively, but deviated by >100% for scenario 1. For adults aged ≥65 years, modeled 2017 IPD incidence in scenario 1 differed from observed data by 16% versus roughly 8% in scenarios 2 and 3. Conclusions: Observed data do not support a scenario of no serotype 3 VE, but rather a combination of direct protection among vaccinated children and a lower level of indirect protection among older adults. Policymakers should consider transmission dynamics when examining VE against covered serotypes.
VL  - 4
IS  - 4
ER  -

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