This paper discusses the Holt-Winters forecasting method that takes into account the effect of Eid. This method is used to predict the total domestic passengers departing in five major ports in Indonesia. Then a comparison is carried out between Holt-Winters method and Holt-Winters method that takes into account the effect of Eid. The comparison is done by comparing the mean square error obtained by both methods of forecasting, and it shows that the modified method provides better forcasting results.
| Published in | Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Volume 3, Issue 6) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15 |
| Page(s) | 257-262 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2015. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Forecasting, Holt-Winters Method, Effect of Eid, Mean Square Error
| [1] | Bell, W. R. and S. C. Hillmer. (2003). Modeling Time Series with Calender Variation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78, pp. 526-534. |
| [2] | Hillier, F. S. and G. J. Lieberman. (2001). Introduction to Operations Research, 7th Ed. McGraw-Hill Higher Education. New York. |
| [3] | Jin, L. L. and S. L. Tian. (2003). Modeling Lunar Calender Holiday Effect in Taiwan. Taiwan Economics Policy and Forecast, 33, pp 1-37. |
| [4] | Hyndman, R. J., A. B. Koehler, J. K Ord, and R. D. Snyder. (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing-The State Approach. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg. |
| [5] | Markidakis, S., S. C. Wheelwright, and V. E. McGee. (1998). Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3rdEd. Jhon Wiley & Sons. New York. |
| [6] | Monsell, B. C. (2007). Issues in Modeling and Adjusting Calender Effects in Economics Time Series. Paper presented at the ICES-III, June 18-21, 2007, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. |
| [7] | Montgomery, D. C., C. L. Jenning, and M. Kulahci. (2008). Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting. Wiley-Interscience. New Jersey. |
| [8] | Rasmussen, R. (2003). On Time Series Data and Optimal Parameters. Omega, 32, pp. 111-120. |
| [9] | Shuja’, N., M. A. Lazim, and Y. B. Wah. (2007). Moving Holiday Effects Adjustment for Malaysian Economic Time Series. Journal of Department of Statistics Malaysia, 1, pp. 35-50. |
| [10] | Zhang, X., C. H. McLaren, and C. C. S. Leung. (2003). An Easter Proximity Effect: Modeling and Adjusment. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 43, pp. 269-280. |
APA Style
Bustami, Hadi Irawansyah, M. D. H. Gamal. (2015). Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 3(6), 257-262. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15
ACS Style
Bustami; Hadi Irawansyah; M. D. H. Gamal. Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid. Sci. J. Appl. Math. Stat. 2015, 3(6), 257-262. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15
AMA Style
Bustami, Hadi Irawansyah, M. D. H. Gamal. Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid. Sci J Appl Math Stat. 2015;3(6):257-262. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15
Share This Article
Twitter
Linked In
Facebook
Copy
Download@article{10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15,
author = {Bustami and Hadi Irawansyah and M. D. H. Gamal},
title = {Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid},
journal = {Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics},
volume = {3},
number = {6},
pages = {257-262},
doi = {10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjams.20150306.15},
abstract = {This paper discusses the Holt-Winters forecasting method that takes into account the effect of Eid. This method is used to predict the total domestic passengers departing in five major ports in Indonesia. Then a comparison is carried out between Holt-Winters method and Holt-Winters method that takes into account the effect of Eid. The comparison is done by comparing the mean square error obtained by both methods of forecasting, and it shows that the modified method provides better forcasting results.},
year = {2015}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid AU - Bustami AU - Hadi Irawansyah AU - M. D. H. Gamal Y1 - 2015/12/14 PY - 2015 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15 DO - 10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15 T2 - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics JF - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics JO - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics SP - 257 EP - 262 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2376-9513 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20150306.15 AB - This paper discusses the Holt-Winters forecasting method that takes into account the effect of Eid. This method is used to predict the total domestic passengers departing in five major ports in Indonesia. Then a comparison is carried out between Holt-Winters method and Holt-Winters method that takes into account the effect of Eid. The comparison is done by comparing the mean square error obtained by both methods of forecasting, and it shows that the modified method provides better forcasting results. VL - 3 IS - 6 ER -
Information
Email: