Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests

Romeo Mawonike; Musara Chipumuro; Tendai Makoni; Talent David Murwendo

doi:doi:10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11

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Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests

Romeo Mawonike, Musara Chipumuro, Tendai Makoni, Talent David Murwendo

Published in Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Volume 9, Issue 6)

Received: 20 November 2020 Accepted: 22 June 2021 Published: 2 December 2021

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Abstract

The movement of people into and out of the Zimbabwean borders has become a topical issue in every sector of the country. The main devastating movement is when a lot of skilled professionals leave the country to other countries in search of greener pastures without ploughing back home and left the country of origin with few or no skilled personnel to drive the economy forward. Zimbabwe is one of the developing countries that have suffered the “brain drain” for the past decades and currently there seem no solution to stop this emigration. There is no equal balance between immigrants and emigrants. In this paper, we investigate the trend analysis of Zimbabwe migration using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope test. We find Mann-Kendall Test imperative in the analysis of trends of migration since it most requires data which is not normally distributed and data which contains extreme values which are difficult to handle using parametric test. Firstly, we investigate the direction of the trend and then its magnitude in terms of slope. Results show that there is a significant increase in the number of migrants going out of Zimbabwe to other countries over past two decades. This is indicated by high positive magnitudes in trend or the Sen’s estimator. On the other hand, there is insignificant trend of inflows from other countries into Zimbabwe over a decade from February to December, except in every January.

Published in	Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Volume 9, Issue 6)
DOI	10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11
Page(s)	133-140
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Migration, Mann-Kendall, Trend Analysis, Sen’s Slope

References

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[9]	Gavrilov, M. B., Tošić, I., Marković, S. B., Unkašević, M., Petrović, P. (2016). Analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends using the Mann-Kendall test in Vojvodina, Serbia, Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, 120 (2), pp. 183–198.
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[18]	Salmi, T., Maata, A., Antilla, P., Ruoho-Airola, T., Amnell, T. (2002). Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates – the Excel template application Makesens. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, 35 pp.
[19]	Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63: 1379–1389.
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APA Style

Romeo Mawonike, Musara Chipumuro, Tendai Makoni, Talent David Murwendo. (2021). Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 9(6), 133-140. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11

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ACS Style

Romeo Mawonike; Musara Chipumuro; Tendai Makoni; Talent David Murwendo. Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests. Sci. J. Appl. Math. Stat. 2021, 9(6), 133-140. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11

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AMA Style

Romeo Mawonike, Musara Chipumuro, Tendai Makoni, Talent David Murwendo. Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests. Sci J Appl Math Stat. 2021;9(6):133-140. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11

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@article{10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11,
  author = {Romeo Mawonike and Musara Chipumuro and Tendai Makoni and Talent David Murwendo},
  title = {Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests},
  journal = {Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics},
  volume = {9},
  number = {6},
  pages = {133-140},
  doi = {10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjams.20210906.11},
  abstract = {The movement of people into and out of the Zimbabwean borders has become a topical issue in every sector of the country. The main devastating movement is when a lot of skilled professionals leave the country to other countries in search of greener pastures without ploughing back home and left the country of origin with few or no skilled personnel to drive the economy forward. Zimbabwe is one of the developing countries that have suffered the “brain drain” for the past decades and currently there seem no solution to stop this emigration. There is no equal balance between immigrants and emigrants. In this paper, we investigate the trend analysis of Zimbabwe migration using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope test. We find Mann-Kendall Test imperative in the analysis of trends of migration since it most requires data which is not normally distributed and data which contains extreme values which are difficult to handle using parametric test. Firstly, we investigate the direction of the trend and then its magnitude in terms of slope. Results show that there is a significant increase in the number of migrants going out of Zimbabwe to other countries over past two decades. This is indicated by high positive magnitudes in trend or the Sen’s estimator. On the other hand, there is insignificant trend of inflows from other countries into Zimbabwe over a decade from February to December, except in every January.},
 year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests
AU  - Romeo Mawonike
AU  - Musara Chipumuro
AU  - Tendai Makoni
AU  - Talent David Murwendo
Y1  - 2021/12/02
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11
T2  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
JF  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
JO  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
SP  - 133
EP  - 140
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2376-9513
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11
AB  - The movement of people into and out of the Zimbabwean borders has become a topical issue in every sector of the country. The main devastating movement is when a lot of skilled professionals leave the country to other countries in search of greener pastures without ploughing back home and left the country of origin with few or no skilled personnel to drive the economy forward. Zimbabwe is one of the developing countries that have suffered the “brain drain” for the past decades and currently there seem no solution to stop this emigration. There is no equal balance between immigrants and emigrants. In this paper, we investigate the trend analysis of Zimbabwe migration using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope test. We find Mann-Kendall Test imperative in the analysis of trends of migration since it most requires data which is not normally distributed and data which contains extreme values which are difficult to handle using parametric test. Firstly, we investigate the direction of the trend and then its magnitude in terms of slope. Results show that there is a significant increase in the number of migrants going out of Zimbabwe to other countries over past two decades. This is indicated by high positive magnitudes in trend or the Sen’s estimator. On the other hand, there is insignificant trend of inflows from other countries into Zimbabwe over a decade from February to December, except in every January.
VL  - 9
IS  - 6
ER  -

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Author Information

Romeo Mawonike

Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Great Zimbabwe University, Masvingo, Zimbabwe
Musara Chipumuro

Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Great Zimbabwe University, Masvingo, Zimbabwe
Tendai Makoni

Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Great Zimbabwe University, Masvingo, Zimbabwe
Talent David Murwendo

Department of Physics, Geography and Environmental Science, Great Zimbabwe University, Masvingo, Zimbabwe

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APA Style

Romeo Mawonike, Musara Chipumuro, Tendai Makoni, Talent David Murwendo. (2021). Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 9(6), 133-140. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11

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ACS Style

Romeo Mawonike; Musara Chipumuro; Tendai Makoni; Talent David Murwendo. Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests. Sci. J. Appl. Math. Stat. 2021, 9(6), 133-140. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11

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AMA Style

Romeo Mawonike, Musara Chipumuro, Tendai Makoni, Talent David Murwendo. Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests. Sci J Appl Math Stat. 2021;9(6):133-140. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11,
  author = {Romeo Mawonike and Musara Chipumuro and Tendai Makoni and Talent David Murwendo},
  title = {Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests},
  journal = {Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics},
  volume = {9},
  number = {6},
  pages = {133-140},
  doi = {10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjams.20210906.11},
  abstract = {The movement of people into and out of the Zimbabwean borders has become a topical issue in every sector of the country. The main devastating movement is when a lot of skilled professionals leave the country to other countries in search of greener pastures without ploughing back home and left the country of origin with few or no skilled personnel to drive the economy forward. Zimbabwe is one of the developing countries that have suffered the “brain drain” for the past decades and currently there seem no solution to stop this emigration. There is no equal balance between immigrants and emigrants. In this paper, we investigate the trend analysis of Zimbabwe migration using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope test. We find Mann-Kendall Test imperative in the analysis of trends of migration since it most requires data which is not normally distributed and data which contains extreme values which are difficult to handle using parametric test. Firstly, we investigate the direction of the trend and then its magnitude in terms of slope. Results show that there is a significant increase in the number of migrants going out of Zimbabwe to other countries over past two decades. This is indicated by high positive magnitudes in trend or the Sen’s estimator. On the other hand, there is insignificant trend of inflows from other countries into Zimbabwe over a decade from February to December, except in every January.},
 year = {2021}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests
AU  - Romeo Mawonike
AU  - Musara Chipumuro
AU  - Tendai Makoni
AU  - Talent David Murwendo
Y1  - 2021/12/02
PY  - 2021
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11
T2  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
JF  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
JO  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
SP  - 133
EP  - 140
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2376-9513
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11
AB  - The movement of people into and out of the Zimbabwean borders has become a topical issue in every sector of the country. The main devastating movement is when a lot of skilled professionals leave the country to other countries in search of greener pastures without ploughing back home and left the country of origin with few or no skilled personnel to drive the economy forward. Zimbabwe is one of the developing countries that have suffered the “brain drain” for the past decades and currently there seem no solution to stop this emigration. There is no equal balance between immigrants and emigrants. In this paper, we investigate the trend analysis of Zimbabwe migration using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope test. We find Mann-Kendall Test imperative in the analysis of trends of migration since it most requires data which is not normally distributed and data which contains extreme values which are difficult to handle using parametric test. Firstly, we investigate the direction of the trend and then its magnitude in terms of slope. Results show that there is a significant increase in the number of migrants going out of Zimbabwe to other countries over past two decades. This is indicated by high positive magnitudes in trend or the Sen’s estimator. On the other hand, there is insignificant trend of inflows from other countries into Zimbabwe over a decade from February to December, except in every January.
VL  - 9
IS  - 6
ER  -

Copy | Download