The robust regional and seasonal variability exhibited in Australian rainfall patterns, superimposed by the large-scale-continental-climate-volatility, is expected to further intensify under climate change impacts, altering the recurrence and austerity of extreme rainfall intensity event(s) prevalence. This needs to be conscientiously addressed while developing Intensity-Frequency-Duration (IFD) curves for employment in the design of flood-mitigation-infrastructure. Current Australian IFD practices are developed based upon the temporal-stationarity-concept, thereby calling for updated IFD practices based upon non-stationarity approaches for future flood mitigation/planning. However, a major obstacle in the adaptation of this approach is centered around the unavailability of projected future rainfall data records at sub-hourly/sub-daily timescales, crucial for developing IFD curves of any sort. This has led to extensive research on various rainfall disaggregation techniques, using both statistical and empirical methods. This paper proposes the novel application of one such empirical method, a reduction formula used by the Ethiopian Road Authority, dubbed as the ERA Formula, for disaggregating projected daily rainfall data into sub-daily/sub-hourly timescales. The proposed method is attested on an Eastern Melbourne urban catchment, Gardiners Creek, with good-quality observed rainfall data. The original ERA equation, is calibrated to befit Australian climatic and geographical conditions, following which it is applied and evaluated. The results highlight that the application of the ERA approach exhibited supremacy in the accurate replication of the observed temporal variability in the annual maxima rainfall timeseries at the sub-daily/sub-hourly timesteps, with high estimation accuracy (R2 = 88-92% & NSE = 0.89-0.9) and minimum error magnitude (MAE = 0.85mm & RMSE =1.37 mm), thereby highlighting the efficacy of potentially adopting this approach for disaggregation of the projected rainfall.
| Published in | American Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering (Volume 9, Issue 2) |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.ajese.20250902.13 |
| Page(s) | 59-67 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2025. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Intensity-Frequency Duration (IFD) Curves, Disaggregation, Design Rainfall, Climate Change, Empirical Approach, Sub-daily/Sub-hourly
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APA Style
Balacumaresan, H., Hossain, I., Imteaz, M. A. (2025). Disaggregation of Climate-Projected Rainfall Using an Empirical Approach for Design Rainfall Estimation. American Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, 9(2), 59-67. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajese.20250902.13
ACS Style
Balacumaresan, H.; Hossain, I.; Imteaz, M. A. Disaggregation of Climate-Projected Rainfall Using an Empirical Approach for Design Rainfall Estimation. Am. J. Environ. Sci. Eng. 2025, 9(2), 59-67. doi: 10.11648/j.ajese.20250902.13
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Download@article{10.11648/j.ajese.20250902.13,
author = {Harshanth Balacumaresan and Iqbal Hossain and Monzur Alam Imteaz},
title = {Disaggregation of Climate-Projected Rainfall Using an Empirical Approach for Design Rainfall Estimation
},
journal = {American Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering},
volume = {9},
number = {2},
pages = {59-67},
doi = {10.11648/j.ajese.20250902.13},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajese.20250902.13},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajese.20250902.13},
abstract = {The robust regional and seasonal variability exhibited in Australian rainfall patterns, superimposed by the large-scale-continental-climate-volatility, is expected to further intensify under climate change impacts, altering the recurrence and austerity of extreme rainfall intensity event(s) prevalence. This needs to be conscientiously addressed while developing Intensity-Frequency-Duration (IFD) curves for employment in the design of flood-mitigation-infrastructure. Current Australian IFD practices are developed based upon the temporal-stationarity-concept, thereby calling for updated IFD practices based upon non-stationarity approaches for future flood mitigation/planning. However, a major obstacle in the adaptation of this approach is centered around the unavailability of projected future rainfall data records at sub-hourly/sub-daily timescales, crucial for developing IFD curves of any sort. This has led to extensive research on various rainfall disaggregation techniques, using both statistical and empirical methods. This paper proposes the novel application of one such empirical method, a reduction formula used by the Ethiopian Road Authority, dubbed as the ERA Formula, for disaggregating projected daily rainfall data into sub-daily/sub-hourly timescales. The proposed method is attested on an Eastern Melbourne urban catchment, Gardiners Creek, with good-quality observed rainfall data. The original ERA equation, is calibrated to befit Australian climatic and geographical conditions, following which it is applied and evaluated. The results highlight that the application of the ERA approach exhibited supremacy in the accurate replication of the observed temporal variability in the annual maxima rainfall timeseries at the sub-daily/sub-hourly timesteps, with high estimation accuracy (R2 = 88-92% & NSE = 0.89-0.9) and minimum error magnitude (MAE = 0.85mm & RMSE =1.37 mm), thereby highlighting the efficacy of potentially adopting this approach for disaggregation of the projected rainfall.
},
year = {2025}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Disaggregation of Climate-Projected Rainfall Using an Empirical Approach for Design Rainfall Estimation AU - Harshanth Balacumaresan AU - Iqbal Hossain AU - Monzur Alam Imteaz Y1 - 2025/05/14 PY - 2025 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajese.20250902.13 DO - 10.11648/j.ajese.20250902.13 T2 - American Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering JF - American Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering JO - American Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering SP - 59 EP - 67 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2578-7993 UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajese.20250902.13 AB - The robust regional and seasonal variability exhibited in Australian rainfall patterns, superimposed by the large-scale-continental-climate-volatility, is expected to further intensify under climate change impacts, altering the recurrence and austerity of extreme rainfall intensity event(s) prevalence. This needs to be conscientiously addressed while developing Intensity-Frequency-Duration (IFD) curves for employment in the design of flood-mitigation-infrastructure. Current Australian IFD practices are developed based upon the temporal-stationarity-concept, thereby calling for updated IFD practices based upon non-stationarity approaches for future flood mitigation/planning. However, a major obstacle in the adaptation of this approach is centered around the unavailability of projected future rainfall data records at sub-hourly/sub-daily timescales, crucial for developing IFD curves of any sort. This has led to extensive research on various rainfall disaggregation techniques, using both statistical and empirical methods. This paper proposes the novel application of one such empirical method, a reduction formula used by the Ethiopian Road Authority, dubbed as the ERA Formula, for disaggregating projected daily rainfall data into sub-daily/sub-hourly timescales. The proposed method is attested on an Eastern Melbourne urban catchment, Gardiners Creek, with good-quality observed rainfall data. The original ERA equation, is calibrated to befit Australian climatic and geographical conditions, following which it is applied and evaluated. The results highlight that the application of the ERA approach exhibited supremacy in the accurate replication of the observed temporal variability in the annual maxima rainfall timeseries at the sub-daily/sub-hourly timesteps, with high estimation accuracy (R2 = 88-92% & NSE = 0.89-0.9) and minimum error magnitude (MAE = 0.85mm & RMSE =1.37 mm), thereby highlighting the efficacy of potentially adopting this approach for disaggregation of the projected rainfall. VL - 9 IS - 2 ER -
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Australia
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Australia
Department of Civil and Construction Engineering, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Australia
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