Research Article
Flood Impact Assessment, LSTM-Based Forecasting, and Revenue Loss Analysis of the Melamchi Water Supply Project
Issue:
Volume 11, Issue 5, October 2025
Pages:
125-135
Received:
11 August 2025
Accepted:
29 August 2025
Published:
19 September 2025
Abstract: The Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) was launched to address water shortages in Kathmandu Valley but faced significant disruptions due to the catastrophic floods of June 2021. These floods caused 503 non-functional days and revenue losses of NRs. 823.10 million, underscoring systemic vulnerabilities, inadequate disaster preparedness, and insufficient contingency planning. This study evaluates MWSP’s performance by analyzing water discharge trends, forecasting missing data, and estimating financial impacts. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model was employed to predict water discharge using the recorded data at Sundarijal Treatment Plant by Kathmandu Upatyaka Khanepani Limited (KUKL), achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 6.82% and a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.63. However, the model struggled with abrupt changes caused by disasters, leaving 37% of variance unexplained. The findings highlight the need for enhanced disaster resilience, diversified water supply strategies, proactive maintenance, and hybrid forecasting models that integrate machine learning with domain-specific knowledge and external variables. These measures can improve MWSP’s reliability and sustainability, ensuring consistent water supply amidst urbanization and climate-induced risks. This research provides actionable insights for stakeholders to strengthen water management frameworks and support Kathmandu Valley’s long-term water security.
Abstract: The Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) was launched to address water shortages in Kathmandu Valley but faced significant disruptions due to the catastrophic floods of June 2021. These floods caused 503 non-functional days and revenue losses of NRs. 823.10 million, underscoring systemic vulnerabilities, inadequate disaster preparedness, and insuff...
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Research Article
Escalating Dengue Burden and Emerging Hotspots in Bangladesh: A Decade of Trends and 2025 Forecast
Issue:
Volume 11, Issue 5, October 2025
Pages:
136-142
Received:
5 August 2025
Accepted:
1 September 2025
Published:
19 September 2025
Abstract: Background: Dengue, an emerging public health threat, has increased incidence, severity, and geographical spread in Bangladesh. In 2023, the dengue outbreak, 321,179 confirmed cases and 1,705 deaths were reported. This study aimed to project the potential scale and risk distribution of dengue outbreak in 2025 to guide pre-monsoon preparedness. Methods: Using artificial intelligence, we conducted a retrospective epidemiological analysis using national surveillance data from the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), and WHO reports from 2014 to June 2025. The annual reported dengue case counts, deaths, serotype data, and seasonal patterns were included in the analysis. Projections for 2025 were developed by comparing early-season trends and historical burden across divisions. Results: Between 2014 and 2024, Bangladesh reported an exponential rise in dengue, with the CFR increasing from 0.16% (2019) to 0.57% (2024). In 2025, dengue cases will be expanded to all 64 districts, with new rural hotspots in Barishal, Chattogram, and Khulna divisions. DENV3 and DENV2 will be the dominant circulating serotypes. In 2025, dengue infection is projected to result in 2,82,000–7,91,000 cases and 1,240–4,58 deaths, with Dhaka, Barishal, and Chattogram divisions at the highest risk. Conclusion: Our study concluded an earlier onset, increasing severity, and expanding geographical reach of dengue cases in 2025. Pre-monsoon preparedness—including year-round vector control, clinical readiness, and climate-adaptive planning—is urgently needed to mitigate the anticipated 2025 outbreak.
Abstract: Background: Dengue, an emerging public health threat, has increased incidence, severity, and geographical spread in Bangladesh. In 2023, the dengue outbreak, 321,179 confirmed cases and 1,705 deaths were reported. This study aimed to project the potential scale and risk distribution of dengue outbreak in 2025 to guide pre-monsoon preparedness. Meth...
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,
Bidur Kandel
